Long-time temperature variations in Portugal over the last 140 years and the effect of the solar activity

TL;DR

This study analyzes 140 years of temperature data in Portugal, revealing significant correlations with solar activity and atmospheric indices, especially during colder months, and discusses potential mechanisms linking solar variability to climate changes.

Contribution

It provides a comprehensive analysis of long-term temperature variations in Portugal and demonstrates the influence of solar activity and atmospheric indices on regional climate.

Findings

Temperature correlates positively with sunspot numbers.

Temperature correlates negatively with cosmic ray flux.

Strong seasonal dependence of solar influence on temperature.

Abstract

We present the analysis of temperature variations in Portugal for 140 years (from 1865 to 2005). The two stations with the longest time series of temperature measurements (Lisbon and Coimbra) have been used to study the dependence of the portuguese climate variations on the changes of both global circulation and solar activity. Monthly averaged temperature series have been analyzed together with monthly North-Atlantic Oscillation index data, sunspot numbers and cosmic ray flux intensity. Different statistical methods (the correlation analysis and the multiple regression analysis) were used. Our results show that the temperature in Portugal depends not only on the atmospheric variations in the studied region but also on the variations of the solar parameters such as sunspot numbers and the cosmic rays flux intensity. Also, the dependence of temperature on solar parameters is strong during the cold season (November to February), while much weaker during the warm season. For some months, strong correlations between the temperature variations of the current month and the North-Atlantic Oscillation index values of the previous month have been found. The correlation between climatic and solar parameters shows up best on the decadal and decadal-to-centennial timescale. It is found that the temperature correlates positively with the sunspot numbers and negatively with the CR flux intensity throughout the year. Besides, the absolute values of the correlation coefficients between the temperature and the CR are higher than those between the temperature and the sunspot numbers. Our results are consistent with some of the proposed mechanisms that relate solar activity to Earth climate and could be explained through the effect of the solar UV radiation and stratosphere-troposphere coupling or/and through the effect of the CR particles on clouds and stratospheric and tropospheric conditions.