Modelling the Dynamics of an Aedes albopictus Population

TL;DR

This paper introduces a formal modeling approach for Aedes albopictus mosquito population dynamics using Stochastic CLS, incorporating environmental factors, and validates the model with a custom simulator and real data comparison.

Contribution

It extends Stochastic CLS to include environmental events and develops a Maude-based simulator for mosquito population dynamics.

Findings

Model accurately captures mosquito population fluctuations

Environmental factors significantly influence dynamics

Simulator matches real-world data effectively

Abstract

We present a methodology for modelling population dynamics with formal means of computer science. This allows unambiguous description of systems and application of analysis tools such as simulators and model checkers. In particular, the dynamics of a population of Aedes albopictus (a species of mosquito) and its modelling with the Stochastic Calculus of Looping Sequences (Stochastic CLS) are considered. The use of Stochastic CLS to model population dynamics requires an extension which allows environmental events (such as changes in the temperature and rainfalls) to be taken into account. A simulator for the constructed model is developed via translation into the specification language Maude, and used to compare the dynamics obtained from the model with real data.