Does a low solar cycle minimum hint at a weak upcoming cycle?

TL;DR

This paper investigates whether a low solar cycle minimum reliably predicts a weak upcoming cycle, concluding that current evidence is insufficient to make such a prediction based solely on low Rmin values.

Contribution

The study analyzes the correlation between solar cycle minima and subsequent maxima, challenging the assumption that a low Rmin indicates a very weak next cycle.

Findings

Low Rmin alone does not reliably predict weak cycle amplitude.

Correlation analysis shows insufficient evidence to confirm the link.

Cycle 24's weakness cannot be confidently inferred from its low Rmin.

Abstract

The maximum amplitude (Rm) of a solar cycle, in the term of mean sunspot numbers, is well-known to be positively correlated with the preceding minimum (Rmin). So far as the long term trend is concerned, a low level of Rmin tends to be followed by a weak Rm, and vice versa. In this paper, we found that the evidence is insufficient to infer a very weak Cycle 24 from the very low Rmin in the preceding cycle. This is concluded by analyzing the correlation in the temporal variations of parameters for two successive cycles.