Is an historical economic crisis upcoming?

TL;DR

This paper analyzes the DJIA index to predict potential upcoming economic crises, providing a framework for ongoing updates and real-time verification of the crisis prediction over time.

Contribution

It introduces a method for predicting recession timing from DJIA data and proposes a dynamic, regularly updated approach for tracking economic crisis signals.

Findings

Recession time prediction approach developed

Frequent updates enable real-time crisis monitoring

Potential early warning signals identified

Abstract

In this work, the time chart of Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index is analyzed and approach of recession time term is predicted, which may be hallmark of a worldwide economic crisis. However, the methods used for the prediction will be disclosed a few years from now. On the other hand, this work will be updated by the author frequently once in every few months where no revisions will be made on the previous uploads and a timestamp will designate each part. Thus, the time evolution of the crisis can be followed and the prediction may be verified by the readers in time.