Oscillatory thermal instability and the Bhopal disaster

TL;DR

This paper analyzes the thermal instability leading to the Bhopal disaster, revealing that oscillatory runaway was caused by a subcritical Hopf bifurcation, which traditional methods cannot predict.

Contribution

It introduces a stability analysis model showing oscillatory thermal runaway mechanisms in liquid reactive systems, providing new insights into the Bhopal disaster.

Findings

Thermal runaway was due to large amplitude oscillations.

Oscillations initiated at a subcritical Hopf bifurcation.

Conventional thermal diagrams cannot predict this behavior.

Abstract

A stability analysis is presented of the hydrolysis of methyl isocyanate (MIC) using a homogeneous flow reactor paradigm. The results simulate the thermal runaway that occurred inside the storage tank of MIC at the Bhopal Union Carbide plant in December 1984. The stability properties of the model indicate that the thermal runaway may have been due to a large amplitude, hard thermal oscillation initiated at a subcritical Hopf bifurcation. This type of thermal misbehavior cannot be predicted using conventional thermal diagrams, and may be typical of liquid thermoreactive systems.