A Regression-based Adjusted Plus-Minus Statistic for NHL Players
Brian Macdonald
TL;DR
This paper introduces a regression-based adjusted plus-minus statistic for NHL players that isolates individual contributions to goal scoring and prevention, accounting for teammate and opponent effects.
Contribution
It develops a novel statistical method using weighted least squares regression to accurately estimate individual player impacts in hockey.
Findings
Provides offensive and defensive adjusted plus-minus estimates
Offers goals per 60 minutes and per season metrics
Includes separate estimates for forwards, defensemen, and goalies
Abstract
The goal of this paper is to develop an adjusted plus-minus statistic for NHL players that is independent of both teammates and opponents. We use data from the shift reports on NHL.com in a weighted least squares regression to estimate an NHL player's effect on his team's success in scoring and preventing goals at even strength. Both offensive and defensive components of adjusted plus-minus are given, estimates in terms of goals per 60 minutes and goals per season are given, and estimates for forwards, defensemen, and goalies are given.
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