Test for consistence of a flyby anomaly simulation with the observed Doppler residuals for the Messenger flybys of Mercury

TL;DR

This paper tests an empirical flyby anomaly model against Messenger spacecraft Mercury flyby data, finding compatibility with observed Doppler residuals and suggesting potential physical reality of the anomaly.

Contribution

It adapts a previous empirical flyby anomaly simulation to Mercury flybys, comparing predictions with observed Doppler residuals without altering prior parameters.

Findings

Simulation matches observed Doppler residuals for Mercury flybys.

Predicted flyby anomalies are consistent with measured data.

Results support the potential physical reality of the flyby anomaly.

Abstract

In 2007, the observed Earth flyby anomalies have been successfully simulated using an empirical formula (H. J. Busack, 2007). This simulation has led to the prediction of anomaly values, to be expected for the Rosetta flybys of Mars in 2007, and following twice of Earth in 2007 and 2009. While the data for the Mars flyby are yet under evaluation, the predictions of the formula for the last two Earth flybys of Rosetta are fully confirmed now. This is remarkable, since an alternatively proposed formula (Anderson et al., 2007) failed to predict the correct values for the recent flybys. For the Mercury flybys of the Messenger spacecraft, this alternative formula predicts a null result. In the meantime, Doppler residuals of these flybys on 14.01.2008 and 06.10.2008 are availabel. On both flybys, significant residuals were observed, using gravity data derived by Mariner 10 on Mercury (D. E. Smith et al., 2009). According to the authors, these residuals cannot be eliminated totally by adjustment of the second degree gravity coefficients and by assumption of irregular mass concentrations of acceptable value on Mercury. In this investigation, I adapt the output of the simulation program to compare with the measured Doppler residuals of the Mercury flybys without changing the formerly derived parameters for the Earth flybys. The simulation with these parameters leads to Doppler residuals of the Mercury flybys compatible with the measured curves. Additionally, the expected flyby anomalies are calculated. Since the gravity field of Mercury is not explored yet with sufficient accuracy, this result cannot be falsified or confirmed until the evaluation of the coming Mercury orbits of Messenger will be finished. If the proposed empirical formula would be confirmed then again, this would be a strong indication of an underlying physical reality.