Time Evolution of the Spread of Diseases with a General Infectivity Profile on a Complex Dynamic Network

TL;DR

This paper presents a novel analytical framework for modeling disease spread over finite networks, accommodating arbitrary infectivity profiles and intervention strategies, validated through comparison with simulations.

Contribution

It introduces a flexible analytical method for disease dynamics on networks that includes general infectivity profiles and intervention effects.

Findings

Analytical results closely match simulation outcomes.

Method accommodates diverse infectivity profiles and interventions.

Provides a basis for extending disease modeling on complex networks.

Abstract

This manuscript introduces a new analytical approach for studying the time evolution of disease spread on a finite size network. Our methodology can accommodate any disease with a general infectivity profile. This new approach is able to incorporate the impact of a general intervention - at the population level - in a number of different ways. Below, we discuss the details of the equations involved and compare the outcomes of analytical calculation against simulation results. We conclude with a discussion of possible extensions of this methodology.