A simple analytical approach to describe disease spread on a network

TL;DR

This paper presents an analytical method using generations to model disease spread on networks, accurately predicting epidemic size and aligning well with simulations.

Contribution

It introduces a simple analytical framework based on generations for describing disease dynamics on networks, with potential for further generalization.

Findings

Analytical results closely match simulation data

Derived equations effectively predict epidemic size

Discussed potential for improving the model

Abstract

We investigate the time evolution of disease spread on a network by using the concept of generations. We derive a set of equations, which can be used to determine the average epidemic size. We find a very good agreement between the analytical and simulation results. The details of approximations and the possibility of generalization or improvement are discussed.