Record-breaking temperatures reveal a warming climate

TL;DR

This paper analyzes how rising mean temperatures due to climate change increase the frequency of record-breaking temperature events, supported by mathematical modeling and empirical data from European and American weather stations.

Contribution

It introduces a mathematical framework linking climate warming to record event rates and applies it to real temperature data to quantify the impact of climate change.

Findings

Warming climate increases the rate of temperature records.

Approximately 5 out of 17 high temperature records in 2005 are due to climate change.

The model accurately predicts the increase in record-breaking events.

Abstract

We present a mathematical analysis of records drawn from independent random variables with a drifting mean. To leading order the change in the record rate is proportional to the ratio of the drift velocity to the standard deviation of the underlying distribution. We apply the theory to time series of daily temperatures for given calendar days, obtained from historical climate recordings of European and American weather stations as well as re-analysis data. We conclude that the change in the mean temperature has increased the rate of record breaking events in a moderate but significant way: For the European station data covering the time period 1976-2005, we find that about 5 of the 17 high temperature records observed on average in 2005 can be attributed to the warming climate.