Dynamics underlying Box-office: Movie Competition on Recommender Systems

TL;DR

This paper presents a mean-field model of movie competition in recommender systems, showing how viewer reviews influence box-office dynamics and the transition from bombs to blockbusters.

Contribution

It introduces a simple mean-field dynamical model linking review scores to box-office success, highlighting the critical quality threshold for hit movies.

Findings

Popularity spread is triggered by surpassing average review scores.

Critical review score determines transition from bombs to blockbusters.

Model aligns qualitatively with real box-office dynamics.

Abstract

We introduce a simple model to study movie competition in the recommender systems. Movies of heterogeneous quality compete against each other through viewers' reviews and generate interesting dynamics of box-office. By assuming mean-field interactions between the competing movies, we show that run-away effect of popularity spreading is triggered by defeating the average review score, leading to hits in box-office. The average review score thus characterizes the critical movie quality necessary for transition from box-office bombs to blockbusters. The major factors affecting the critical review score are examined. By iterating the mean-field dynamical equations, we obtain qualitative agreements with simulations and real systems in the dynamical forms of box-office, revealing the significant role of competition in understanding box-office dynamics.