First-Passage Properties of Bursty Random Walks

TL;DR

This paper studies the first-passage behavior of bursty random walks, modeling early virus spread, revealing complex dependencies of infection time and probability on initial conditions and burst parameters.

Contribution

It introduces a model of bursty random walks with non-trivial first-passage properties relevant to virus transmission dynamics.

Findings

Exit probability depends non-monotonically on initial position.

Infection time shows complex dependence on initial conditions and burst length.

The model captures key features of early-stage virus spread.

Abstract

We investigate the first-passage properties of bursty random walks on a finite one-dimensional interval of length L, in which unit-length steps to the left occur with probability close to one, while steps of length b to the right -- "bursts" -- occur with small probability. This stochastic process provides a crude description of the early stages of virus spread in an organism after exposure. The interesting regime arises when b is of the order of but less than 1, where the conditional exit time to reach L, corresponding to an infected state, has a non-monotonic dependence on initial position. Both the exit probability and the infection time exhibit complex dependences on the initial condition due to the interplay between the burst length and interval length.