Will the swine strain crowd out the seasonal influenza strain?

TL;DR

This paper investigates how competition between influenza strains influences their coexistence or exclusion, using spatial and non-spatial models to explain observed patterns.

Contribution

It introduces a spatial model demonstrating conditions under which influenza strains can coexist, challenging the traditional exclusion principle.

Findings

Non-spatial models suggest competition leads to one strain crowding out the other.

A spatial model shows coexistence of strains is possible under certain conditions.

Virulence influences which strain dominates or coexists.

Abstract

We use spatial and non spatial models to argue that competition alone may explain why two influenza strains do not usually coexist. The more virulent strain is likely to crowd out the less virulent one. This can be seen as a consequence of the Exclusion Principle of Ecology. We exhibit, however, a spatial model for which coexistence is possible.