The effect of metallicity on the detection prospects for gravitational waves

TL;DR

This study shows that lower metallicity environments greatly increase the likelihood of detecting gravitational waves from black hole binaries, suggesting imminent detection prospects with future sensitive instruments.

Contribution

It combines recent stellar metallicity data and theoretical mass loss models to estimate GW detection rates, highlighting the impact of metallicity on binary formation and detection likelihood.

Findings

Detection rate increases by a factor of 20 at low metallicity.

Black hole binaries are 25 times more likely sources than neutron star binaries.

Future instruments could detect GWs within the first year of operation.

Abstract

Data from the SDSS (300,000 galaxies) indicates that recent star formation (within the last 1 billion years) is bimodal: half the stars form from gas with high amounts of metals (solar metallicity), and the other half form with small contribution of elements heavier than Helium (10-30% solar). Theoretical studies of mass loss from the brightest stars derive significantly higher stellar-origin BH masses (30-80 Msun) than previously estimated for sub-solar compositions. We combine these findings to estimate the probability of detecting gravitational waves (GWs) arising from the inspiral of double compact objects. Our results show that a low metallicity environment significantly boosts the formation of double compact object binaries with at least one BH. In particular, we find the GW detection rate is increased by a factor of 20 if the metallicity is decreased from solar (as in all previous estimates) to a 50-50 mixture of solar and 10% solar metallicity. The current sensitivity of the two largest instruments to NS-NS binary inspirals (VIRGO: 9 Mpc; LIGO: 18) is not high enough to ensure a first detection. However, our results indicate that if a future instrument increased the sensitivity to 50-100 Mpc, a detection of GWs would be expected within the first year of observation. It was previously thought that NS-NS inspirals were the most likely source for GW detection. Our results indicate that BH-BH binaries are 25-times more likely sources than NS-NS systems and that we are on the cusp of GW detection.