Forecast for the Planck precision on the tensor to scalar ratio and other cosmological parameters

TL;DR

This paper forecasts the Planck satellite's ability to precisely measure the tensor-to-scalar ratio and other cosmological parameters, considering systematic effects and foreground residuals within inflationary models.

Contribution

It evaluates the expected Planck precision for cosmological parameters using inflation-inspired models and systematic residuals, providing realistic detection probabilities for primordial B modes.

Findings

Best r value around 0.04 with residuals

68% CL detection likely with 30% residuals

95% CL detection requires residuals below 10%

Abstract

The Planck satellite is right now measuring with unprecedented accuracy the primary Background CMB anisotropies. The Standard Model of the Universe (including inflation) provides the context to analyze the CMB and other data. The Planck performance for r, the tensor to scalar ratio related to primordial B mode polarization, will depend on the quality of the data analysis. The Ginsburg Landau approach to inflation allows to take high benefit of the CMB data. The fourth degree double well inflaton potential gives an excellent fit to the current CMB+LSS data. We evaluate the Planck precision to the recovery of cosmological parameters within a reasonable toy model for residuals of systematic effects of instrumental and astrophysical origin based on publicly available information.We use and test two relevant models: the LambdaCDMr model, i.e. the standard LambdaCDM model augmented by r, and the LambdaCDMrT model, where the scalar spectral index, n_s, and r are related through the theoretical `banana-shaped' curve r = r(n_s) coming from the double-well inflaton potential. In the latter case, r = r(n_s) is imposed as a hard constraint in the MCMC data analysis. We take into account the white noise sensitivity of Planck in the 70, 100 and 143 GHz channels as well as the residuals from systematics errors and foregrounds. Foreground residuals turn to affect only the cosmological parameters sensitive to the B modes. The best value for r in the presence of residuals turns to be about r simeq 0.04 for both the LambdaCDMr and the LambdaCDMrT models. We compute the B mode detection probability by the most sensitive HFI-143 channel. At the level of foreground residual equal to 30% of our toy model only a 68% CL detection of r is very likely. For a 95% CL detection the level of foreground residual should be reduced to 10% or lower of the adopted toy model (ABRIDGED).