A Bayesian Periodogram Finds Evidence for Three Planets in 47 Ursae Majoris

TL;DR

This paper introduces a Bayesian periodogram method using a hybrid MCMC algorithm to detect multiple planets in radial velocity data, successfully identifying three planets around 47 Ursae Majoris with refined orbital parameters.

Contribution

It presents a novel hybrid MCMC algorithm for multi-planet detection and applies it to 47 Ursae Majoris, confirming two known planets and discovering a third, with improved orbital parameter estimation.

Findings

Confirmed two known planets with refined periods and eccentricities.

Detected a third long-period planet with high confidence.

Developed a noise bias correction filter for eccentricity detection.

Abstract

A Bayesian analysis of 47 Ursae Majoris (47 UMa) radial velocity data confirms and refines the properties of two previously reported planets with periods of 1079 and 2325 days and finds evidence for an additional long period planet with a period of approximately 10000 days. The three planet model is found to be 10^5 times more probable than the next most probable model which is a two planet model. The nonlinear model fitting is accomplished with a new hybrid Markov chain Monte Carlo (HMCMC) algorithm which incorporates parallel tempering, simulated annealing and genetic crossover operations. Each of these features facilitate the detection of a global minimum in chi-squared. By combining all three, the HMCMC greatly increases the probability of realizing this goal. When applied to the Kepler problem it acts as a powerful multi-planet Kepler periodogram. The measured periods are 1078 \pm 2, 2391{+100}{-87}, and 14002{+4018}{-5095}d, and the corresponding eccentricities are 0.032 \pm 0.014, 0.098{+.047}{-.096}, and 0.16{+.09}{-.16}. The results favor low eccentricity orbits for all three. Assuming the three signals (each one consistent with a Keplerian orbit) are caused by planets, the corresponding limits on planetary mass (M sin i) and semi-major axis are (2.53{+.07}{-.06}MJ, 2.10\pm0.02au), (0.54\pm0.07MJ, 3.6\pm0.1au), and (1.6{+0.3}{-0.5}MJ, 11.6{+2.1}{-2.9}au), respectively. We have also characterized a noise induced eccentricity bias and designed a correction filter that can be used as an alternate prior for eccentricity, to enhance the detection of planetary orbits of low or moderate eccentricity.