An attempt at reading Keynes' Treatise on Probability

TL;DR

This paper reviews Keynes' 1921 'Treatise on Probability', focusing on its critique of Bayesian methods and its implications for statistical foundations, offering a modern perspective on its relevance to current statistical methodology.

Contribution

It provides a modern analysis of Keynes' critique of Bayesian probability and explores its implications for the foundations of statistical theory.

Findings

Keynes was critical of Bayesian approaches in his time.

The book proposes alternative perspectives on probability foundations.

The review connects Keynes' ideas with modern statistical debates.

Abstract

The book A Treatise on Probability was published by John Maynard Keynes in 1921. It contains a critical assessment of the foundations of probability and of the current statistical methodology. As a modern reader, we review here the aspects that are most related with statistics, avoiding a neophyte's perspective on the philosophical issues. In particular, the book is quite critical of the Bayesian approach and we examine the arguments provided by Keynes, as well as the alternative he proposes. This review does not subsume the scholarly study of Aldrich (2008a) relating Keynes with the statistics community of the time.