Expansion or extinction: deterministic and stochastic two-patch models with Allee effects

TL;DR

This study explores how Allee effects and dispersal influence the long-term fate of populations in patchy environments, revealing conditions for expansion or extinction through analytical and numerical analysis of deterministic and stochastic models.

Contribution

It provides a combined analytical and numerical analysis of deterministic and stochastic two-patch models with Allee effects, highlighting how dispersal intensity affects population outcomes.

Findings

Weak dispersal allows coexistence of high and low-density populations.

Metastability in stochastic models leads to eventual global extinction or expansion.

Strong dispersal synchronizes patches, resulting in either global expansion or extinction.

Abstract

We investigate the impact of Allee effect and dispersal on the long-term evolution of a population in a patchy environment, focusing on whether a population already established in one patch either successfully invades an adjacent empty patch or undergoes a global in-all-patch extinction. Our study is based on the combination of analytical and numerical results for both a deterministic two-patch model and its stochastic analog. The deterministic model has either two or four attractors. In the presence of weak dispersal, the analysis of the deterministic model shows that a high-density and a low-density populations can coexist at equilibrium in nearby patches, whereas the analysis of the stochastic model indicates that this equilibrium is metastable, thus leading after a large random time to either an in-all-patch expansion or an in-all-patch extinction. Up to some critical dispersal, increasing the intensity of the interactions leads to an increase of both the basin of attraction of the in-all-patch extinction and the basin of attraction of the in-all-patch expansion. Above this threshold, while increasing the intensity of the dispersal, both deterministic and stochastic models predict a synchronization of the patches resulting in either a global expansion or a global extinction: for the deterministic model, two of the four attractors present when the dispersal is weak are lost, while the stochastic model no longer exhibits a metastable behavior. In the presence of strong dispersal, the limiting behavior is entirely determined by the value of the Allee threshold as the global population size in the deterministic and the stochastic two-patch models evolves as dictated by the single-patch counterparts ...