A Universal Hurricane Frequency Function

TL;DR

This paper proposes a universal function for hurricane frequency based on sea surface temperature and latitude, predicting increased hurricane numbers in a warming world and explaining recent regional variations.

Contribution

It introduces a data-driven universal model for hurricane frequency that links it to a single variable, providing insights into regional and global trends under climate change.

Findings

Hurricane frequency can be modeled by a universal function of temperature and latitude.

The model predicts significant increases in hurricanes with global warming.

Regional differences in hurricane trends are explained by the model's dependence on temperature and latitude.

Abstract

Evidence is provided that the global distribution of tropical hurricanes is principally determined by a universal function H of a single variable z that in turn is expressible in terms of the local sea surface temperature and latitude. The data-driven model presented here carries stark implications for the large increased numbers of hurricanes which it predicts for a warmer world. Moreover, the rise in recent decades in the numbers of hurricanes in the Atlantic, but not the Pacific basin, is shown to have a simple explanation in terms of the specific form of H(z), which yields larger percentage increases when a fixed increase in sea surface temperature occurs at higher latitudes and lower temperatures.