Risk Quantification Associated with Wind Energy Intermittency in California

TL;DR

This paper introduces a framework and tools for quantifying the systemic risks caused by wind energy intermittency in California, highlighting how increased wind penetration raises reliability concerns for energy systems.

Contribution

It presents a novel methodology and risk tables that enable policymakers to assess the impact of wind intermittency on energy reliability in California.

Findings

Increasing wind penetration raises systemic risk levels.

Intermittent deficits can significantly impact energy reliability.

Holistic risk tables aid quick decision-making.

Abstract

As compared to load demand, frequent wind energy intermittencies produce large short-term (sub 1-hr to 3-hr) deficits (and surpluses) in the energy supply. These intermittent deficits pose systemic and structural risks that will likely lead to energy deficits that have significant reliability implications for energy system operators and consumers. This work provides a toolset to help policy makers quantify these first-order risks. The thinking methodology / framework shows that increasing wind energy penetration significantly increases the risk of loss in California. In addition, the work presents holistic risk tables as a general innovation to help decision makers quickly grasp the full impact of risk.