A New Graphical Microburst Guidance Product

TL;DR

This paper introduces a new graphical microburst guidance product that uses RUC model data, focusing on boundary layer temperature lapse rate and humidity differences to predict microburst conditions effectively.

Contribution

It presents a novel microburst guidance tool that integrates key boundary layer parameters for improved prediction accuracy.

Findings

Effective in indicating microburst-favorable conditions during 2009

Utilizes boundary layer temperature lapse rate and humidity differences

Demonstrates potential for operational use in weather forecasting

Abstract

A new microburst graphical guidance product has been developed that employs data from the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) model. Prototypical conditions for microbursts include a steep temperature lapse rate and decreasing humidity with decreasing height in the boundary layer. Thus, the graphical guidance product incorporates boundary layer temperature lapse rate and vertical relative humidity difference, important factors in initiating and sustaining a convective downdraft. The new guidance product demonstrated effectiveness in indicating favorable conditions for downbursts during the 2009 convective season.