How "Short" a "Short-term earthquake prediction" can be? A review of the case of Skyros Island,Greece, EQ (26/7/2001, Ms = 6.1 R)

TL;DR

This review assesses the potential of short-term earthquake prediction methods, demonstrating that with proper data analysis, predictions can be made within an hour of the event, based on electric field and seismic energy data.

Contribution

The paper reviews and validates methodologies that achieve near-hour accuracy in short-term earthquake prediction using electric field and seismic data analysis.

Findings

Predictions deviated less than an hour from actual event time.

Utilized electric field data recorded 25 days prior to EQ.

Methodology successfully predicted two large earthquakes with minimal deviation.

Abstract

The earthquake of Skyros Island in Greece (26/7/2001, Ms = 6.1 R) was announced three days before its occurrence in a meeting organized by the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia on 2001. In this work a review is made on the results of the methodologies which were used for the analysis of the available data in order to utilize the specific prognosis. Of particular interest is the fact that the determined time of occurrence deviated for less than an hour (actually it was 41 minutes) from the actual occurrence time of the specific EQ. A similar example of another large EQ (Kythira, Greece, Ms = 6.9R, 8th January, 2006) by using the very same methodology deviated for 43 minutes only. The rest of the prognostic parameters: the epicenter location and the magnitude of the Skyros EQ were utilized by manipulating the past seismic energy release history of the regional seismogenic area and the observed earth's electric field which was recorded during the last 25 days, before the occurrence of the large seismic event, by VOL earth's electric field monitoring site. It is concluded that a short-term earthquake prediction can be utilized as a really "short" one, once the available precursory data are processed with the appropriate methodologies.