Bayesian Thought in Early Modern Detective Stories: Monsieur Lecoq, C. Auguste Dupin and Sherlock Holmes

TL;DR

This paper explores how the reasoning patterns of early modern fictional detectives like Lecoq, Dupin, and Holmes align with Bayesian thought, revealing that their maxims reflect Bayesian principles.

Contribution

It demonstrates that the detective maxims from Poe, Gaboriau, and Doyle can be interpreted through the lens of Bayesian game theory and probabilistic reasoning.

Findings

Dupin's reasoning aligns with Bayesian game theory.

Holmes' statements reflect Bayesian thought patterns.

Detective maxims exhibit Bayesian principles.

Abstract

This paper reviews the maxims used by three early modern fictional detectives: Monsieur Lecoq, C. Auguste Dupin and Sherlock Holmes. It find similarities between these maxims and Bayesian thought. Poe's Dupin uses ideas very similar to Bayesian game theory. Sherlock Holmes' statements also show thought patterns justifiable in Bayesian terms.