On the Relation of Hard X-ray Peak Flux and Outburst Waiting Time in the Black Hole Transient GX 339-4

TL;DR

This study re-examines the empirical link between hard X-ray peak flux and outburst waiting time in GX 339-4, confirming previous findings and predicting the next outburst's peak flux based on 18 years of data.

Contribution

It validates the empirical relation between X-ray peak flux and outburst waiting time using extensive observational data and clarifies the impact of faint flares on this relation.

Findings

The 2007 outburst confirms the empirical relation.

Faint flares below 0.12 crab do not affect the relation.

Next outburst's peak flux predicted to exceed 0.65 crab.

Abstract

Aims. In this work we re-investigated the empirical relation between the hard X-ray peak flux and the outburst waiting time found previously in the black hole transient GX 339-4. We tested the relation using the observed hard X-ray peak flux of the 2007 outburst of GX 339-4, clarified issues about faint flares, and estimated the lower limit of hard X-ray peak flux for the next outburst. Methods. We included Swift/BAT data obtained in the past four years. Together with the CGRO/BATSE and RXTE/HEXTE light curves, the observations used in this work cover a period of 18 years. Results. The observation of the 2007 outburst confirms the empirical relation discovered before. This strengthens the apparent link between the mass in the accretion disk and the peak luminosity of the brightest hard state that the black hole transient can reach. We also show that faint flares with peak fluxes smaller than about 0.12 crab do not affect the empirical relation. We predict that the hard X-ray peak flux of the next outburst should be larger than 0.65 crab, which will make it at least the second brightest in the hard X-ray since 1991.