Seismic potential map of Greece calculated for the years 2005 and 2010. Its correlation to the large (Ms>=6.0R) seismic events of the 2000 - 2009 period

TL;DR

This study calculates seismic potential maps for Greece for 2005 and 2010 using the lithospheric seismic energy flow model, correlates them with observed seismicity, and assesses future seismic risk and deformation trends.

Contribution

It introduces a methodology for mapping seismic potential in Greece and correlates it with observed seismicity, providing insights into future seismic risks and deformation patterns.

Findings

Seismic potential increased from 2000-2005 to 2005-2010.

Almost double the large earthquakes occurred in 2005-2010 compared to 2000-2005.

Accelerated deformation since 2004 suggests possible large seismic events within 1-3 years.

Abstract

The seismic potential maps for Greece, particularly for the years 2005 and 2010 (end of 2009), have been calculated following the methodology of the "lithospheric seismic energy flow model". The compiled, for the year 2005, map is compared to the observed large seismicity of 2005 - 2010 period. Furthermore, a comparison is made of the seismic charge status regarding the year 2005 to the one of 2000. It is revealed that there exists an increase of the seismic potential which results into triggering, in the next five years period (2005 - 2010), almost double the number of large EQs, compared to the ones observed during 2000 - 2005 period of time. Finally, estimation is made about the seismic accelerating deformation status of the entire Greek territory. It is shown that, since 2004, accelerated deformation monotonically increases and it is speculated that some large seismic events is possible to occur within the next 1 - 3 years. The average "virtual" magnitude of these seismic events, considering the entire Greek territory as a single unit seismogenic area, has been calculated as Ms = 8.18R. In practice, these events will be decomposed into a number of smaller in magnitude, but still large too, seismic events located at normally different seismogenic areas.