Technological Developments and Factor Substitution in a Complex and Dynamic System

TL;DR

This paper explores the complex interactions between technological change and factor substitution within dynamic systems, emphasizing non-linear dynamics, self-organization, and implications for innovation policies.

Contribution

It introduces a non-linear dynamic model of technological evolution, integrating concepts of regimes and globalization, and discusses policy implications for fostering innovation.

Findings

Technological trajectories are stabilized in distributed environments.

Regimes can restore order despite disturbances.

Policies enabling 'creative destruction' can influence systemic innovation.

Abstract

Schumpeter's (1939) distinction between changes in the form of the production function corresponding to innovation, and shifts along the production function corresponding to factor substitution, does not preclude that the underlying dynamics interact. In an evolutionarily complex system, such interactions are expected: they lead to non-linear terms in the model, and therefore to stabilization and self-organization in addition to selection and variation. Relatively simple simulations enable us to specify various concepts used in 'evolutionary economics' in terms of non-linear dynamics. While a technological trajectory can be considered as a stabilization in a (distributed) environment, a technological regime can be defined as a next-higher-order globalization in a hyper-space. A regime is able to restore its order despite local disturbances, for example by the political system. Technology policies may be effective at the level of the (sub-)systems if they provide the relevant agents with room for 'creative destruction' of the globalized hyper-systems. Implications for firm behaviour and innovation policies are elaborated.