Scaling Trajectories in Civil Aircraft (1913-1997)

TL;DR

This paper analyzes the evolution of civil aircraft designs from 1913 to 1997 using entropy statistics, revealing how dominant designs influenced scaling trajectories at both firm and industry levels.

Contribution

It introduces a novel entropy-based method to analyze scaling patterns in aircraft design and highlights the role of dominant designs in technological trajectories.

Findings

Scaling trajectories were triggered by key designs like DC3 and Boeing 707.

Different variables scaled at different times, showing design versatility.

Industry-level scaling began after reengineered models like DC4 and Boeing 767 appeared.

Abstract

Using entropy statistics we analyse scaling patterns in terms of changes in the ratios among product characteristics of 143 designs in civil aircraft. Two allegedly dominant designs, the piston propeller DC3 and the turbofan Boeing 707, are shown to have triggered a scaling trajectory at the level of the respective firms. Along these trajectories different variables have been scaled at different moments in time: this points to the versatility of a dominant design which allows a firm to react to a variety of user needs. Scaling at the level of the industry took off only after subsequently reengineered models were introduced, like the piston propeller Douglas DC4 and the turbofan Boeing 767. The two scaling trajectories in civil aircraft corresponding to the piston propeller and the turbofan paradigm can be compared with a single, less pronounced scaling trajectory in helicopter technology for which we have data during the period 1940-1996. Management and policy implications can be specified in terms of the phases of codification at the firm and the industry level.