Does Security Transaction Volume-Price Behavior Resemble a Probability Wave?

TL;DR

This paper investigates the volume-price relationship in stock markets, proposing a physics-inspired probability wave model that explains observed kurtosis and coherence phenomena in trading data.

Contribution

It introduces a novel transaction energy hypothesis and derives a probability wave equation to model volume-price behavior, supported by empirical validation.

Findings

Accumulated trading volume shows kurtosis near the mean price over time.

The volume-price behavior resembles a probability wave.

Empirical data supports the existence of coherence in stock market volume-price dynamics.

Abstract

Motivated by how transaction amount constrain trading volume and price volatility in stock market, we, in this paper, study the relation between volume and price if amount of transaction is given. We find that accumulative trading volume gradually emerges a kurtosis near the price mean value over a trading price range when it takes a longer trading time, regardless of actual price fluctuation path, time series, or total transaction volume in the time interval. To explain the volume-price behavior, we, in terms of physics, propose a transaction energy hypothesis, derive a time-independent transaction volume-price probability wave equation, and get two sets of analytical volume distribution eigenfunctions over a trading price range. By empiric test, we show the existence of coherence in stock market and demonstrate the model validation at this early stage. The volume-price behaves like a probability wave.