Modelling the strategies for age specific vaccination scheduling during influenza pandemic outbreaks

TL;DR

This study models age-specific vaccination strategies during influenza pandemics, showing that early, targeted vaccination can significantly reduce attack rates and emphasizing the importance of timing and delays in immunity development.

Contribution

It introduces a compartmental model with age structure to evaluate vaccination timing and strategies during an outbreak, highlighting their impact on epidemic outcomes.

Findings

Age-specific scheduling can reduce attack rates by up to 10%.

A 10-day delay in vaccination increases attack rate by up to 6%.

Early vaccination start is crucial for effective epidemic control.

Abstract

Finding optimal policies to reduce the morbidity and mortality of the ongoing pandemic is a top public health priority. Using a compartmental model with age structure and vaccination status, we examined the effect of age specific scheduling of vaccination during a pandemic influenza outbreak, when there is a race between the vaccination campaign and the dynamics of the pandemic. Our results agree with some recent studies on that age specificity is paramount to vaccination planning. However, little is known about the effectiveness of such control measures when they are applied during the outbreak. Comparing five possible strategies, we found that age specific scheduling can have a huge impact on the outcome of the epidemic. For the best scheme, the attack rates were up to 10% lower than for other strategies. We demonstrate the importance of early start of the vaccination campaign, since ten days delay may increase the attack rate by up to 6%. Taking into account the delay between developing immunity and vaccination is a key factor in evaluating the impact of vaccination campaigns. We provide a general framework which will be useful for the next pandemic waves as well.