Defining, Estimating and Using Credit Term Structures. Part 1: Consistent Valuation Measures

TL;DR

This paper introduces a new framework for credit term structures that corrects biases in traditional spread measures, providing more robust valuation and risk measures for distressed bonds and establishing new relative value metrics.

Contribution

It proposes a consistent valuation framework, new credit bond duration and convexity definitions, and relative value measures that improve analysis of credit bonds and derivatives.

Findings

More robust estimates for distressed bonds

New definitions of credit bond duration and convexity

Enhanced relative value measures for credit analysis

Abstract

In this three-part series of papers, we argue that the conventional spread measures are not well defined for credit-risky bonds and introduce a set of credit term structures which correct for the biases associated with the strippable cash flow valuation assumption. We demonstrate that the resulting estimates are significantly more robust and remain meaningful even when applied to deeply distressed bonds. We also suggest a new definition of credit bond duration and convexity which remains consistent for distressed bonds and introduce new relative value measures for individual bonds in the context of sector or issuer credit curves, as well as for the basis between cash bonds and credit default swaps (CDS).