Jeffreys's law for general games of prediction: in search of a theory

TL;DR

This paper explores a generalized version of Jeffreys's law in prediction games, classifying when similar long-term predictions occur among predictors with satisfactory performance, supported by illustrative examples.

Contribution

It provides a classification framework for instances of Jeffreys's law in prediction games, expanding understanding of predictor similarity in long-term forecasting.

Findings

Classified instances of Jeffreys's law in prediction scenarios

Illustrated the classification with concrete examples

Enhanced theoretical understanding of predictor behavior

Abstract

We are interested in the following version of Jeffreys's law: if two predictors are predicting the same sequence of events and either is doing a satisfactory job, they will make similar predictions in the long run. We give a classification of instances of Jeffreys's law, illustrated with examples.