UT1 prediction based on long-time series analysis

TL;DR

This paper introduces a novel method for UT1 prediction that combines a harmonic model based on extensive historical data with a modified autoregression technique, resulting in improved accuracy over existing methods.

Contribution

The paper presents a new approach for UT1 prediction using long-term harmonic modeling and modified autoregression, outperforming previous prediction methods.

Findings

Proposed method yields substantially better accuracy than IERS predictions.

Utilizes all available 80-100 years of data for harmonic modeling.

Rigorous comparison confirms improved prediction performance.

Abstract

A new method is developed for prediction of UT1. The method is based on construction of a general harmonic model of the Earth rotation using all the data available for the last 80-100 years, and modified autoregression technique. A rigorous comparison of UT1 predictions computed at SNIIM with the prediction computed by IERS (USNO) in 2008-2009 has shown that proposed method pro-vides substantially better accuracy.