How to Determine the Probability of the Higgs Boson Detection

TL;DR

This paper proposes using online prediction markets to estimate the probability of discovering the Higgs boson, emphasizing their potential as objective tools for scientific prediction.

Contribution

It introduces the idea of applying online prediction markets to evaluate the likelihood of Higgs boson detection, bridging physics and market-based forecasting.

Findings

Prediction markets can provide real-time probability estimates.

Online platforms could complement traditional scientific methods.

The approach encourages community engagement in scientific forecasting.

Abstract

The Higgs boson is the most important, though yet undiscovered ingredient of the standard model of particle physics. Its detection is therefore one of the most important goals of high energy physics that can guide future research in theoretical physics. Enormous efforts have been undertaken to prove the existence of the Higgs boson, and the physics community is excitedly awaiting the restart of the Large Hadron Collider at CERN. But how sure can we be that the Higgs exits at all? The German philosopher Immanuel Kant recommended betting at such controversial questions, and Stephen Hawking announced a $100 bet against the Higgs. But seriously, online prediction markets, which are a generalized form of betting, do provide the best possible probability estimates for future events. It is proposed that the scientific community uses this platforms for evaluation. See also an online description www.Bet-On-The-Higgs.com.