Are the contributions of China and Korea upsetting the world system of science?

TL;DR

This paper analyzes how emerging nations like China and Korea are experiencing endogenous growth in scientific contributions, potentially shifting the global scientific center of gravity, based on longitudinal performance data.

Contribution

It introduces a new perspective by comparing national science systems over time, revealing endogenous growth and delayed citation impact in emerging nations.

Findings

Emerging nations show endogenous growth in scientific output.

Citation rates in these nations grow with a delay but follow exponential patterns.

The global center of scientific influence may be shifting towards these nations.

Abstract

Institutions and their aggregates are not the right units of analysis for developing a science policy with cognitive goals in view. Institutions, however, can be compared in terms of their performance with reference to their previous stages. King's (2004) 'The scientific impact of nations' has provided the data for this comparison. Evaluation of the data from this perspective along the time axis leads to completely different and hitherto overlooked conclusions: a new dynamic can be revealed which points to a group of emerging nations. These nations do not increase their contributions marginally, but their national science systems grow endogenously. In addition to publications, their citation rates keep pace with the exponential growth patterns, albeit with a delay. The center of gravity of the world system of science may be changing accordingly.