Hyper-incursion and the Globalization of the Knowledge-Based Economy

TL;DR

This paper explores how hyper-incursion models the complex anticipatory dynamics in the global knowledge-based economy, emphasizing the interplay of multiple expectation mechanisms and their role in social and economic co-evolution.

Contribution

It introduces a hyper-incursion framework to model the recursive anticipatory interactions among different subsystems in the knowledge economy.

Findings

Hyper-incursion captures the recursive anticipation in social systems.

Expectations co-evolve through transversal and temporal mechanisms.

Modeling anticipatory dynamics aids understanding of techno-economic co-evolution.

Abstract

In biological systems, the capacity of anticipation--that is, entertaining a model of the system within the system--can be considered as naturally given. Human languages enable psychological systems to construct and exchange mental models of themselves and their environments reflexively, that is, provide meaning to the events. At the level of the social system expectations can further be codified. When these codifications are functionally differentiated--like between market mechanisms and scientific research programs--the potential asynchronicity in the update among the subsystems provides room for a second anticipatory mechanism at the level of the transversal information exchange among differently codified meaning-processing subsystems. Interactions between the two different anticipatory mechanisms (the transversal one and the one along the time axis in each subsystem) may lead to co-evolutions and stabilization of expectations along trajectories. This recursive incursion on the incursive dynamics of expectations can be modeled using hyper-incursion. The knowledge-based subdynamic at the global level which thus emerges, enables historical agents to inform the reconstruction of previous states and to co-construct future states of the social system, for example, in a techno-economic co-evolution.