Growth Model for Vote Distributions in Elections

TL;DR

This paper introduces a simple growth model incorporating Majority and Media effects to accurately replicate vote distributions across various countries' elections.

Contribution

It presents a novel two-parameter growth model that effectively fits election vote distributions worldwide.

Findings

Model successfully fits data from multiple countries.

Two dominant effects explain vote distribution patterns.

Parameters can be adjusted to match different electoral contexts.

Abstract

There are many factors that can influence the outcome of an election. We here identify two dominant effects that can affect the votes obtained by a candidate, namely, the Majority Effect and the Media Effect. We mimic these two effects in a simple growth model. We put the model on a two-dimensional square lattice and test it against the available data from elections in various countries. By adjusting the two parameters in the model, we are able to fit the vote distributions in all the countries studied.