Lock-in & Break-out from Technological Trajectories: Modeling and policy implications

TL;DR

This paper models the interaction of three selection mechanisms—market, technology, and an additional factor—to understand conditions leading to technological lock-in, break-out, or coexistence, with implications for policy and innovation strategies.

Contribution

It introduces a model incorporating a third selection mechanism to analyze how technological lock-in can be broken and when technologies coexist or dominate.

Findings

Model predicts conditions for lock-in, break-out, and coexistence.

Bifurcation analysis reveals how third mechanisms influence technological trajectories.

Provides a framework for policy implications on technological development.

Abstract

Arthur [1,2] provided a model to explain the circumstances that lead to technological lock-in into a specific trajectory. We contribute substantially to this area of research by investigating the circumstances under which technological development may break-out of a trajectory. We argue that for this to happen, a third selection mechanism--beyond those of the market and of technology--needs to upset the lock-in. We model the interaction, or mutual shaping among three selection mechanisms, and thus this paper also allows for a better understanding of when a technology will lock-in into a trajectory, when a technology may break-out of a lock-in, and when competing technologies may co-exist in a balance. As a system is conceptualized to gain a (third) degree of freedom, the possibility of bifurcation is introduced into the model. The equations, in which interactions between competition and selection mechanisms can be modeled, allow one to specify conditions for lock-in, competitive balance, and break-out.