The time distribution of aftershock magnitudes, fault geometry and aftershock prediction

TL;DR

This paper introduces a novel analysis of aftershock sequences, revealing a linear relationship in the time distribution of magnitudes that correlates with fault zone characteristics, aiding in aftershock prediction.

Contribution

It presents the first analysis of the time cumulant of aftershock magnitudes, establishing a linear pattern linked to fault zone properties.

Findings

Time cumulant of aftershock magnitudes forms a straight line

Slope of the line is characteristic of the fault zone

Potential tool for aftershock prediction

Abstract

We have analyzed, for the first time, the time cumulant of magnitudes of an aftershock sequence since the mainshock. This comes out to be a remarkable straight line whose slope is characteristic of the fault zone. This will provide an useful tool in understanding the temporal distribution of aftershocks after a specific mainshock.