On Prediction of EOP

TL;DR

This paper compares extrapolation and ARIMA methods for predicting Earth's pole coordinates and TAI-UTC, finding each most effective at different forecast lengths, and discusses their practical application and accuracy.

Contribution

It introduces a combined prediction algorithm for EOP that optimally uses both methods depending on forecast duration.

Findings

ARIMA is better for short-term predictions.

Extrapolation is better for long-term predictions.

The combined algorithm achieves accuracy close to IERS standards.

Abstract

Two methods of prediction of the Pole coordinates and TAI-UTC were tested -- extrapolation of the deterministic components and ARIMA. It was found that each of these methods is most effective for certain length of prognosis. For short-time prediction ARIMA algorithm yields more accurate prognosis, and for long-time one extrapolation is preferable. So, the combined algorithm is being used in practice of IAA EOP Service. The accuracy of prognosis is close to accuracy of IERS algorithms. For prediction of nutation the program KSV-1996-1 by T. Herring is being used.