Collision probabilities of migrating small bodies and dust particles with planets

TL;DR

This study estimates collision probabilities of migrating small bodies and dust with planets, revealing potential water delivery to Earth and other planets, with probabilities generally below 0.2.

Contribution

It provides the first comprehensive analysis of collision probabilities for various small bodies and dust particles with planets, including water delivery estimates.

Findings

Total collision probability with all planets does not exceed 0.2.

Jupiter-family and Halley-type comets could deliver more water to Mars, Venus, and Mercury than to Earth.

Water delivery from small bodies could surpass Earth's ocean water volume during planetary formation.

Abstract

Probabilities of collisions of migrating small bodies and dust particles produced by these bodies with planets were studied. Various Jupiter-family comets, Halley-type comets, long-period comets, trans-Neptunian objects, and asteroids were considered. The total probability of collisions of any considered body or particle with all planets did not exceed 0.2. The amount of water delivered from outside of Jupiter's orbit to the Earth during the formation of the giant planets could exceed the amount of water in Earth's oceans. The ratio of the mass of water delivered to a planet by Jupiter-family comets or Halley-type comets to the mass of the planet can be greater for Mars, Venus, and Mercury, than that for Earth.