Systemic Risk in the International System

TL;DR

This paper models the evolution of systemic risk in the international system, highlighting how network effects influence stability and the periodic occurrence of systemic wars for rebalancing.

Contribution

It introduces a novel framework linking criticality, sensitivity, and network effects to systemic war dynamics in the international system.

Findings

Sensitivity decreases for larger wars due to network effects

Criticality steadily increases leading to systemic war triggers

Systemic war facilitates rebalancing of the international system

Abstract

The risk of systemic war seems dependant on the level of criticality and sensitivity of the International System, and the system's conditions. The level of criticality and sensitivity is dependant on the developmental stage of the International System. Initially, following a systemic war, the increase of the level of criticality and sensitivity go hand in hand. However, at a certain stage the sensitivity of the International System for larger sized wars decreases; as a consequence of a network effect, we argue. This network effect results in increased local stability of the System. During this phase the criticality of the International System steadily increases, resulting in a release deficit. This release deficit facilitates a necessary build up of energy to push the International System, by means of systemic war, into a new stability domain. Systemic war is functional in the periodic rebalancing of an anarchistic international system.