The Virtues of Frugality - Why cosmological observers should release their data slowly

TL;DR

The paper argues that gradually releasing cosmological data can improve the discovery and testing of new models by preventing premature conclusions and allowing anomalies to be identified as cosmic variance becomes dominant.

Contribution

It introduces the concept of frugal data release in cosmology to enhance model discovery and verification amid cosmic variance limitations.

Findings

Gradual data release helps identify anomalies early.

Premature data release can hinder model testing.

Frugal data sharing improves scientific robustness.

Abstract

Cosmologists will soon be in a unique position. Observational noise will gradually be replaced by cosmic variance as the dominant source of uncertainty in an increasing number of observations. We reflect on the ramifications for the discovery and verification of new models. If there are features in the full data set that call for a new model, there will be no subsequent observations to test that model's predictions. We give specific examples of the problem by discussing the pitfalls of model discovery by prior adjustment in the context of dark energy models and inflationary theories. We show how the gradual release of data can mitigate this difficulty, allowing anomalies to be identified, and new models to be proposed and tested. We advocate that observers plan for the frugal release of data from future cosmic variance limited observations.