Predicting Human Lifespan Limits

TL;DR

This paper investigates whether there is an intrinsic limit to human lifespan by analyzing survival data with a new Weibull-based model, suggesting that human lifespan may have an inevitable maximum.

Contribution

It introduces an extended Weibull model with age-dependent parameters to analyze human survival curves and identify potential lifespan limits.

Findings

Evidence of a potential intrinsic human lifespan limit.

The model captures survival dynamics effectively.

Analysis of recent decades shows consistent patterns in maximum lifespan.

Abstract

Recent discoveries show steady improvements in life expectancy during modern decades. Does this support that humans continue to live longer in future? We recently put forward the maximum survival tendency, as found in survival curves of industrialized countries, which is described by extended Weibull model with age-dependent stretched exponent. The maximum survival tendency suggests that human survival dynamics may possess its intrinsic limit, beyond which survival is inevitably forbidden. Based on such tendency, we develop the model and explore the patterns in the maximum lifespan limits from industrialized countries during recent three decades. This analysis strategy is simple and useful to interpret the complicated human survival dynamics.