The Future of Nuclear Energy: Facts and Fiction Chapter II: What is known about Secondary Uranium Resources?

TL;DR

This paper analyzes the status of secondary uranium resources as of 2009, highlighting their imminent exhaustion and the potential need for military uranium stocks to prevent future shortages in nuclear energy production.

Contribution

It provides a detailed assessment of secondary uranium resources, projecting their depletion and emphasizing the importance of military stocks for future supply security.

Findings

Secondary uranium stocks will be exhausted within 5 years.

Military uranium stocks could be crucial for avoiding supply shortages.

US and Russian military stocks are key to future uranium availability.

Abstract

During 2009 nuclear power plants, with a capacity of 370 GWe, will produce roughly 14% of the worldwide electric energy. About 65000 tons of natural uranium equivalent are required to operate these reactors. For 15 years on average only 2/3 of this fuel is provided by the uranium mines and 1/3 comes from secondary resources. In this paper the situation concerning the secondary resources at the beginning of the year 2009 is presented. The data used are from the IAEA/NEA 2007 Red Book, "Uranium Resources, Production and Demand", and from the World Nuclear Association (WNA). Our analysis shows that these civilian stocks will be essentially exhausted within the next 5 years. This coincides roughly with the year 2013, when the delivery of the 10000 tons of natural uranium equivalent from russian military stocks to the USA will end. As the majority of the remaining civilian stocks, about 30000 tons, are believed to be under the control of the US government and american companies, it seems rather unlikely that the USA will share their own strategic uranium reserves with other large nuclear energy users. All data indicate that a uranium supply shortage in many OECD countries can only be avoided if the remaining military uranium stocks from Russia and the USA, estimated to be roughly 500000 tons are made available to the other countries.