The Utility of Reliability and Survival

TL;DR

This paper integrates reliability and utility within a decision-theoretic framework, proposing a new utility of chance model and elicitation method applicable to various risk-related decision scenarios.

Contribution

It introduces a functional form for utility of chance and a probability of choice model for utility elicitation, enhancing decision analysis involving risk and survival.

Findings

Proposed a new utility of chance functional form.

Developed a probability of choice model for utility elicitation.

Illustrated the approach with a military planning example.

Abstract

Reliability (survival analysis, to biostatisticians) is a key ingredient for mak- ing decisions that mitigate the risk of failure. The other key ingredient is utility. A decision theoretic framework harnesses the two, but to invoke this framework we must distinguish between chance and probability. We describe a functional form for the utility of chance that incorporates all dispositions to risk, and pro- pose a probability of choice model for eliciting this utility. To implement the model a subject is asked to make a series of binary choices between gambles and certainty. These choices endow a statistical character to the problem of utility elicitation. The workings of our approach are illustrated via a live example in- volving a military planner. The material is general because it is germane to any situation involving the valuation of chance.