The Chinese Equity Bubble: Ready to Burst
K. Bastiaensen, P. Cauwels, D. Sornette, R. Woodard, W.-X. Zhou
TL;DR
This paper analyzes the Shanghai Composite index during the financial crisis, identifying signs of a bubble and predicting a potential crash between July 17-27, 2009, with quantified confidence levels.
Contribution
It provides an early warning of a Chinese equity bubble and predicts its likely burst date using quantitative analysis.
Findings
Signs of bubble buildup in the Shanghai Composite index
Predicted crash date between July 17-27, 2009
Quantified confidence interval for the prediction
Abstract
Amid the current financial crisis, there has been one equity index beating all others: the Shanghai Composite. Our analysis of this main Chinese equity index shows clear signatures of a bubble build up and we go on to predict its most likely crash date: July 17-27, 2009 (20%/80% quantile confidence interval).
Peer Reviews
No public reviews on file for this paper yet. If you reviewed it on a platform where reviews are public (OpenReview, ICLR, NeurIPS, ICML), you can paste yours below so the community can read it here.
Videos
No videos yet. Explain this paper in a talk, walkthrough, or lecture? Add one.
Taxonomy
TopicsGlobal Financial Crisis and Policies