On the Apparent Orbital Inclination Change of the Extrasolar Transiting Planet TrES-2b

TL;DR

This study confirms that the orbital inclination of TrES-2b has remained stable over several years, contradicting earlier predictions of a significant change, based on new ground-based and Kepler data.

Contribution

The paper provides the first precise measurements over multiple years showing no significant inclination change in TrES-2b, challenging previous claims of orbital variation.

Findings

Inclination change is insignificant over 3 years

Kepler data confirms stable orbital parameters

Rules out predicted inclination variation

Abstract

On June 15, 2009 UT the transit of TrES-2b was detected using the University of Arizona's 1.55 meter Kuiper Telescope with 2.0-2.5 millimag RMS accuracy in the I-band. We find a central transit time of $T_c = 2454997.76286 \pm0.00035$ HJD, an orbital period of $P = 2.4706127 \pm 0.0000009$ days, and an inclination angle of $i = 83^{\circ}.92 \pm 0.05$, which is consistent with our re-fit of the original I-band light curve of O'Donovan et al. (2006) where we find $i = 83^{\circ}.84 \pm0.05$. We calculate an insignificant inclination change of $\Delta i = -0^{\circ}.08 \pm 0.07$ over the last 3 years, and as such, our observations rule out, at the $\sim 11 \sigma$ level, the apparent change of orbital inclination to $i_{predicted} = 83^{\circ}.35 \pm0.1$ as predicted by Mislis and Schmitt (2009) and Mislis et al. (2010) for our epoch. Moreover, our analysis of a recently published Kepler Space Telescope light curve (Gilliland et al. 2010) for TrES-2b finds an inclination of $i = 83^{\circ}.91 \pm0.03$ for a similar epoch. These Kepler results definitively rule out change in $i$ as a function of time. Indeed, we detect no significant changes in any of the orbital parameters of TrES-2b.