A population facing climate change: joint influences of Allee effects and environmental boundary geometry

TL;DR

This study uses a reaction-diffusion model to analyze how changes in the position and shape of climate envelopes, combined with Allee effects, influence species persistence or extinction during climate change-driven migration.

Contribution

It reveals the critical impact of climate envelope shape and boundary geometry on species survival, especially under Allee effects, extending previous models that focused only on position.

Findings

Species with Allee effects are highly sensitive to boundary shape changes.

High mobility species risk extinction at boundary narrowings with Allee effects.

Gradual opening of boundaries can mitigate extinction risks.

Abstract

As a result of climate change, many populations have to modify their range to follow the suitable areas - their "climate envelope" - often risking extinction. During this migration process, they may face absolute boundaries to dispersal, because of external environmental factors. Consequently, not only the position, but also the shape of the climate envelope can be modified. We use a reaction-diffusion model to analyse the effects on population persistence of simultaneous changes in the climate envelope position and shape. When the growth term is of logistic type, we show that extinction and persistence are principally conditioned by the species mobility and the speed of climate change, but not by the shape of the climate envelope. However, with a growth term taking an Allee effect into account, we find a high sensitivity to the variations of the shape of the climate envelope. In this case, the species which have a high mobility, although they could more easily follow the migration of the climate envelope, would be at risk of extinction when encountering a local narrowing of the boundary geometry. This effect can be attenuated by a progressive opening of the available space at the exit of the narrowing, even though it transiently leads to a diminished area of the climate envelope.