A novel determination of the local dark matter density

TL;DR

This paper presents a new, precise measurement of the local dark matter density in the Milky Way using Bayesian analysis, challenging the standard assumptions and aiding dark matter detection efforts.

Contribution

It introduces a novel Bayesian method to determine the local dark matter density with high precision, considering multiple galaxy models and recent observational data.

Findings

Local dark matter density is about 0.39 GeV/cm³ with 7% uncertainty.

Results challenge the standard assumption of 0.3 GeV/cm³ density.

Findings improve the accuracy of dark matter detection models.

Abstract

We present a novel study on the problem of constructing mass models for the Milky Way, concentrating on features regarding the dark matter halo component. We have considered a variegated sample of dynamical observables for the Galaxy, including several results which have appeared recently, and studied a 7- or 8-dimensional parameter space - defining the Galaxy model - by implementing a Bayesian approach to the parameter estimation based on a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. The main result of this analysis is a novel determination of the local dark matter halo density which, assuming spherical symmetry and either an Einasto or an NFW density profile is found to be around 0.39 GeV cm$^{-3}$ with a 1-$\sigma$ error bar of about 7%; more precisely we find a $\rho_{DM}(R_0) = 0.385 \pm 0.027 \rm GeV cm^{-3}$ for the Einasto profile and $\rho_{DM}(R_0) = 0.389 \pm 0.025 \rm GeV cm^{-3}$ for the NFW. This is in contrast to the standard assumption that $\rho_{DM}(R_0)$ is about 0.3 GeV cm$^{-3}$ with an uncertainty of a factor of 2 to 3. A very precise determination of the local halo density is very important for interpreting direct dark matter detection experiments. Indeed the results we produced, together with the recent accurate determination of the local circular velocity, should be very useful to considerably narrow astrophysical uncertainties on direct dark matter detection.