Results of three quantitative predictions based on past regularities about voter turnout at the French 2009 European election

TL;DR

This paper confirms three predictions about voter turnout at the 2009 French European election, based on statistical regularities observed in past election data, demonstrating their robustness across different election types.

Contribution

It provides empirical validation of three quantitative predictions about voter turnout using historical data and real election results.

Findings

All three predictions were confirmed by the actual 2009 European election data.

Statistical regularities in turnout rates are consistent across different election types.

Past regularities can reliably predict future voter turnout in French elections.

Abstract

Twelve turnout rates of French national elections by municipality have shown statistical regularities, neither depend on the nature of the election, nor on the national turnout level. Three quantitative predictions about voter turnout at the French 2009 European election were made in arXiv:0905.4578. Here, we give the results of these three predictions. Each one is confirmed by real measures.